2024’s data is compared with the first regional ranking (2023). The project was organized and funded by the Rating Lab. The research team observed how the well-being in the regions of Ukraine changed in 2024 and introduced a new section of the research – migration attitudes.
The research team: Igor Tyshchenko, Founder of Rating Group, Rating Lab, and Rating Online, Marianna Tkalych, CEO of Rating Lab, Doctor of Psychological Sciences, Prof., Tetiana Skrypchenko, Deputy Director of Rating Group, Eugene Krotevych, Rating Group analyst & Rating Lab expert, Hlib Kuzmenko, Rating Group analyst & Rating Lab expert, Artem Shevchenko, Rating Group analyst & Rating Lab expert
About the Index
LWBI (Local Well-Being Index) is an original product developed by the Rating Lab and powered by the Rating Online (online surveying platform). The data is based on the survey of 9681 respondents in the 22 regions (oblasts) and Kyiv. Respondents rated their cities and villages based on 22 criteria. These criteria were unified into the 5 Index components:
- Emotional perception. Strength, beauty, liveliness, interestingness, progressiveness, uniqueness, brightness of the city/village.
- Civil security. Safety of children and pedestrians, safety at night.
- Quality of education and medical services. Evaluation of preschool, school facilities and medical services.
- Orderliness. Architecture, cleanliness, cultural life, recreation areas, public transport, quality of roads.
- Economic opportunities. Ease of finding a job, doing business, income levels.
Findings
The overall decline in the Local Well-Being Index is a signal of the need for systemic changes
Insight: This indicates not only local problems of regions, but also a general trend of loss of confidence in the quality of life in Ukraine. The decline in the LWBI may affect the growth of migration intentions and economic stagnation. The general LWBI decreased slightly compared to 2023: from 0,08 to -0,01 on a scale from -3 to +3. Hence, probable, LWBI now has a negative value. And overall, the tendency is evident in the majority of regions (except Kharkiv, Rivne, Volyn and Mykolaiv).
• Kyiv city still tops the regional rankings (0,7 points on a scale from -3 to +3). Next are Kharkiv (0,4), Lviv (0,3) and Volyn (0,3) regions. And the lowest level of IMI is in Kherson (-1,1), Zaporizhzhia (-0,6), Sumy (-0,4), Mykolaiv (-0,4), and Kirovohrad (-1,0) regions.
• The average level of well-being has decreased in all types of settlements. But regional centers still have a positive index on average (0,4). On the other hand, other cities (-0,2) and villages (-0,3) have noticeably worse, negative index values.
• Compared to 2023, the scores for the indicators of emotional perception, orderliness, and civil security have decreased slightly. However, the perception of the economic situation has somewhat improved, whereas the assessment of the education and medical facilities generally has not changed.
• Emotional perception still has the highest level among the indicators (0,5). Civil security (0,2) and education/medicine (0,2) also have a positive value. However, the economy (-0,8) and orderliness (-0,1) have the lowest grades from the respondents.
Emotional perception
Emotional perception of cities and villages is worsening – psychological comfort of residents is decreasing
Insight: The deterioration of the emotional perception of their environment means that people identify themselves less and less with their cities. This can affect social activity, involvement in local initiatives and, again, increase the level of desire to emigrate. Since 2023, the emotional perception index has decreased from 0,68 to 0,45. A decline is evident by all criteria, except for uniqueness (0,4 as before).
• The emotional perception indicator has the highest values in Kyiv city (1,5), Kharkiv (1,1), Lviv (0,8), Odesa (0,7), Volyn (0,6), and Ivano-Frankivsk (0,6) regions.
• Yet Kherson (-0,5), Kirovohrad (-0,3), Mykolaiv (-0,1), Zhytomyr (-0,1), Poltava (0,0), and Zaporizhzhia (0,0) regions have the worst score.
• Overall, emotional perception scores decreased among all socio-demographic groups. The most positive emotional perception of their settlement was among respondents from regional centers (1,1) and people aged 65+ (0,6). In contrast, the lowest scores were given by respondents aged 35-49 (0,3). There is a linear relationship between income and emotional perception of one’s city/village: the higher the income, the higher the score.
Economic opportunities
Economic index remains negative, but there are improvements in some contexts
Insight: This may indicate uneven economic development of the country. Presumably, adaptation to the current economic conditions has occured: some regions continue to lose economic opportunities, while the majority of regions have not seen significant changes. In 2024, the economic index is still negative. But it has increased slightly compared to the last year (from -0,89 to -0,83) due to the improvement of the urban/rural income evaluation (from -0,9 to -0,8), the ease of finding a job (from -1,1 to -0,9). Meanwhile, the ease of doing business has not changed (-0,7).
• Kyiv city remains the only region with a positive value of the economic opportunity indicator (0,4). The remaining 22 regions have negative scores (-0,5 and below). In general, Odesa (-0,6), Kyiv (-0,6), Rivne (-0,6), Kharkiv (-0,6), Lviv (-0,6), and Kharkiv (-0,7) regions have relatively better scores among the regions
• The lowest values are in Kherson (-2.0), Sumy (-1,4), Kirovohrad (-1,3), Chernihiv (-1,3), Poltava (-1,2), Mykolaiv (-1,2), Ternopil (-1,2), Zaporizhzhia (-1,1), Zhytomyr (-1,1), and Chernivtsi (-1,1) regions.
• Residents of regional centers have more positive perception of the economic situation in their settlement (-0,2) than other respondents. Among the age categories, the scores have not changed substantially: only among young people aged 16-34 we observe a noticeable positive change of 0,2 points. There is also a linear relationship between income and the assessment of the economy in their city/village: the higher the income, the higher is this indicator.
Orderliness
The orderliness score decreased from +0,1 in 2023 to -0,1 (negative value) in 2024. The decline is observed for almost all criteria, but the assessment of the cultural life development has worsened the most (from 0,3 to 0). The negative assessment of the condition of roads (-0,4) has not changed.
• The leaders in terms of the settlement's orderliness scores are Kharkiv region (0,8) and Kyiv city (0,7). They are followed by Lviv (0,3), Volyn (0,2) and Odesa (0,1) regions, while other regions received a score of 0 or lower.
• The worst scores are in Kherson, Kirovohrad, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava regions (-0,5 for each).
• Orderliness was best rated regional centers (0,6), whereas other cities (-0,3) and villages (-0,5) received negative scores. Respondents who belong to the 65+ age category rate orderliness higher than representatives of younger age categories.
• Income level also affects the assessment of orderliness. The higher the income of the respondents, the higher they rate orderliness in the settlement.
Civic safety
Civil security is failing– residents feel less safe
Insight: The decline in security levels can affect people's long-term migration decisions, as security is one of the key factors in choosing a place to live, so local authorities must respond to these trends. Since 2023, the civil security component has decreased slightly: from 0,3 to 0,2. The scores have decreased for all three indicators (safety of pedestrians, children, and safety at night).
• The best situation is in the western regions – in particular, Volyn (0,9), Ternopil (0,8), Lviv (0,8), Ivano-Frankivsk (0,7), Rivne (0,7), Chernivtsi (0,7), Vinnytsia (0,6), Zakarpattia (0,6), and Khmelnytskyi (0,5) regions.
• The worst situation is in Kherson (-1,2), Zaporizhzhia (-1,0), Dnipropetrovsk (-0,5), Sumy (-0,2), and Mykolaiv (-0,1) regions. In addition, the sixth from the bottom is Kyiv city (0,1).
• Compared to other settlement types, villages have the highest average level of civil security (0,5). The score in regional centers and other cities has decreased compared to 2023.
• Respondents with higher income feel safer in their settlements, while civil security evaluation among the poorest category has decreased the most – by 0,2 points.
Education and medical services
Education and medicine – stability without improvements, which can be perceived as stagnation
Insight: The lack of positive dynamics in critical social areas leads to a decrease in overall well-being assessments, especially in the regions with the worst indicators (Kherson, Mykolaiv regions). The score of education and medicine in 2024 remains at 0,2, and the level of medical services is estimated at -0,1 like before. But the score decreased slightly for school (from 0,5 to 0,4) and preschool (from 0,3 to 0,2) facilities.
• The undisputed leader in the assessment of education and medicine is Kyiv city (0,9). Relatively high scores are shown by Volyn (0,5) as well as Lviv, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk and Rivne regions (0,4 for each).
• The lowest score is in Kherson region (-1,0). Also, the most negative assessments include indicators for Zaporizhzhia (-0,4), Mykolaiv (-0,4), Kirovohrad (-0,1), Kyiv (-0,1), and Chernivtsi (-0,1) regions.
• Regional centers remain leaders in terms of education and medical facilities scores (0,6). In those settlements, there is also a tendency for the assessment of this aspect of well-being to increase. In other cities of the region (0,1) and villages (-0,2), this indicator has decreased compared to 2023.
• Like with all other aspects, there are substantial differences in the assessment of education and medical institutions depending on the income level of the respondents. Respondents with high or average income give rather positive assessment – 0,5 and 0,4, accordingly. On the other hand, the low-income (0,0) and poor (-0,4) categories tend to give average or negative evaluation.
Future prospects
The future in Ukraine VS the future in the settlement – regional differences in perception of prospects
Insight: Confidence in the country does not guarantee confidence in local development. This creates grounds for further urbanization and the outflow of people from small towns to large ones or abroad. 48% of Ukrainians believe that the future in Ukraine has prospects.
• The top-5 optimistic regions include Rivne region (55%), Kyiv city (53%), as well as Kherson (51%), Ivano-Frankivsk (51%), and Zakarpattia (51%) regions.
• Respondents with higher income have positive expectations.
• Older respondents have more positive expectations than the younger ones.
45% of respondents are convinced of the prospects of the future in their settlement.
• The leaders by this criteria are Kyiv city (62%), Rivne (54%), Volyn (51%), Kharkiv (50%), and Ivano-Frankivsk (49%) regions.
• Residents of regional centers and respondents with higher income have a more optimistic outlook on the future in their settlement.
• As in the assessment of the future in Ukraine, older respondents have more positive expectations than younger ones. We observe a clear relationship between the assessment of local well-being (Local Well-being Index, LWBI) and perception of the future in both the settlement and the country.
Youth Self-Realization Index of the settlement
The Youth Self-Realization Index is an average score of various aspects of one’s self-realization in a settlement, which estimates -0,65 on a scale from -3 to +3. Kyiv city is the only settlement where the index has a positive value (0,4). It if followed by Kharkiv (-0,2), Lviv (-0,5), and Odesa (-0,6) regions. The lowest score is in Kherson (-1,3) and Kirovohrad (-1,1) regions.
• The least satisfied needs are access to a job with decent salary and job that brings recognition and satisfaction.
• The best assessment of self-realization opportunities is in regional centers, as well as among more affluent categories of the population.
Migration Intentions Index
The leaders by the Migration Intentions Index (respondents want to move abroad the most) are Zakarpattia, Chernivtsi regions and Kyiv city. At the same time, in Kherson (-1,3), Sumy (-1,2), Lviv (-1,2), Chernihiv (-1,2), Rivne (-1,2), Zhytomyr (-1,1), and Ivano-Frankivsk (-1,1) regions respondents want to move abroad the least. More explicit intentions to migrate are observed among urban residents and young people. Consideration of moving abroad and limitations.
Migration intentions are heating up, especially among young men
Insight: The main risk group is young men who have the resources to move abroad but face legal restrictions. This can create both social and economic challenges for the country. Overall, 25% of respondents have often thought about moving abroad in the past six months: from about 40% among the youngest (16-34 years old) to 6% among the oldest. Men are somewhat more likely to think about moving than women. The peak of migration intentions among men is observed in the age categories of 25-34 (51% often thought about moving abroad in the past six months) and 20-24 years old (46%). Among women, a linear trend is observed: the younger the respondents, the more frequently they thought about moving. The peak values occur in the category of 16-19 years old (40%). Most young men who have thought about moving abroad have economic opportunities to leave, while at the same time they do not have legal opportunities. The tendency among women is the opposite: the majority have legal opportunities, but do not have economic opportunities.
Compared to women, young men have fewer family-related restrictions, and at the same time, they have more contacts with friends and relatives abroad. Men in general are more likely to consider moving abroad “forever”. The largest share of such men is in the age categories of 25-34 (27%) and 35-44 (19%). On the other hand, among female respondents in these age categories, this figure is half as low.
Overall, young men are the main risk group. They are motivated and have the resources to go abroad. But only about half of them actually make any preparatory steps before moving. In addition, most of them have legal restrictions. Among people who thought about moving abroad frequently, the main motives are better living conditions (63%), war-related risks and threat to life in Ukraine (60%), better future for the child (43%), and employment (36%). Meanwhile, for those who thought about it less often, the main motive is the desire to travel (41%). Among those who often think about moving, 42% save money, a third gather information about the country and learn a language, while a quarter prepare the documents. The majority of those who rarely think of moving abroad are not taking any preparatory steps.
The research team found that migration intentions are closely related to the Local Well-Being Index. Hence, the worse is evaluation of the local well-being, self-realization opportunities, and (accordingly) future prospects, the stronger are migration intentions.
Survey methodology
• Fieldwork dates: November 24 – December 8, 2024.
• Survey method: CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interview) – online survey via messengers and social media.
• Sample size: 9681 respondents, or at least 354 in each region (the respondent’s place of residence in the time of survey completion).
• Sample format: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in 22 regions and the city of Kyiv who have Internet access and use a smartphone (over 80% of adult population). The survey was not conducted on the temporarily occupied territories within the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions as well as AR Crimea. For each region and for Ukraine overall, the results were weighted using the most recent data provided by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine